THE SLIP YOU DIDN’T MAKE
Yeah, but
what if?
Five unlikely touchdowns. Ten imaginary dollars.
Build the slip, then see how wild it really was.
Each preset uses up to five different games from the selected source filter. Hindsight is doing the picking.
12 Sunday games45 / 46 scorers with recovered odds45 scorers priced by DraftKingsHistorical quotes · not verified closing linesSource audit ↗
01 / BUILD YOUR SLIP
Pick your players.
ANYTIME TD ODDS
Select up to 15. Missing anytime prices are disabled. This builder uses anytime prices only; a 2+ price cannot be calculated from anytime odds.
02 / THE OTHER SIDE OF THE SLIPOne miss kills it.
INDEPENDENCE BASELINEOne miss kills it.
All of them missing? Different story.
These are model probabilities for the selected players scoring again in a hypothetical replay. The actual Sunday results are already known.
PUT THAT IN HUMAN TERMS
About 1 win in — replays.
A long-run average, never a countdown to a guaranteed win.
—expected winning slips
—expected losing slips
—chance you never win once
—
NOAA annual U.S. estimate: 1 in 1,509,000 ↗. Based on 2013–2022 averages; individual exposure varies. One parlay attempt is compared with one person-year, not lifetime risk.
Same players, same matchups, same scoring assumptions in every independent replay—not a forecast for future NFL Sundays. Expected counts are averages, so they can be fractional. These comparisons inherit the model’s uncertainty.
Your scoring parlay wins.
Your scoring parlay loses.
Zero selected players score.
Baseline scoring chances are raw probabilities implied by the selected odds. They include bookmaker margin and are not calibrated forecasts. Legs are treated as independent, even when they share a game. Change assumptions ↓
REPLAY IT 50,000 TIMESHow many legs
How many legs
go wrong?
Each replay draws a score or miss for every player using the assumed scoring chances.
Run the simulation to compare it with the exact baseline.
Exact model Simulation
NUMBER OF MISSED LEGSSHARE OF REPLAYS
A simulation illustrates the assumptions; it does not verify them.
Adjust the scoring chances Optional sensitivity check +
Set a per-player probability from 0–100%. These are your hypothetical assumptions, not estimates of the true chance. Editing a price resets that player to its raw implied probability.
03 / KEEP THE RECEIPTSFun math.
Fun math.
Honest limits.
What is being calculated?
Convert each American price to decimal odds: positive A becomes 1 + A/100; negative −A becomes 1 + 100/A. Multiply those decimals, then multiply by your stake for total return. Net profit is return minus stake, conditional on every leg winning.
Under independence, P(all score) = ∏pᵢ; P(at least one misses) = 1 − ∏pᵢ; P(all miss) = ∏(1 − pᵢ). Across N independent replays with win chance p, expected wins = Np and P(no wins) = (1 − p)ᴺ. “1 in X” means X = 1/p, not a promised waiting time. Coin-flip comparisons use 2⁻ᵏ for k consecutive heads in one fixed sequence, with k rounded to the closest logarithmic match. The lightning comparison uses the cited NOAA population estimate, not personal risk. The chart uses an exact Poisson-binomial distribution; the simulation samples independent Bernoulli outcomes. For one selected player, “at least one misses” and “all miss” are the same event.
Same-game players, bookmaker margin and hindsight
Players in the same game can be dependent through scoring environment and competition for touches. This version does not estimate those correlations. A sportsbook can reprice or refuse those combinations, and its payout cap may be lower than this arithmetic result. Default presets use distinct games but are still an independence approximation.
A one-sided anytime-TD quote cannot identify a fair, margin-free scoring probability. Do not sum all players’ implied probabilities and normalize them: multiple players can score. The two-outcome market prices needed for a simple margin adjustment were not recovered.
These selections were made after seeing the outcomes. Their rarity is not evidence of a predictive edge. The chance all selected players miss is not the price of a “no touchdown” parlay; no such prices are supplied here.
Where did the player data come from?
DraftKings is used wherever a qualified quote was recovered, followed by dated BetMGM articles. Indexed boards are historical snapshots with unverified capture times; they are not a certified closing-line archive. Each player links to their odds and result sources.
Passing touchdowns and two-point conversions do not count as scorer TDs. A missing price is never inferred. Non-scorers enter the board only when a quoted price and a nonzero box-score participation statistic were recovered. This conservative pool is incomplete, and “missed” describes the scoring result, not sportsbook settlement or injury-refund eligibility.
Read this week’s audit ↗ · Download this week’s data ↓ · Make weekly graphics ↗
Math references: Smarkets: implied probability · FanDuel: parlay structure.